Contemplation on a Chad

We’ve now been here in The Sunshine State for over a week and have yet to spot any chads, hanging or otherwise. We are, however, in the midst of yet another presidential election flap that could whisk us all back to a reprise of the 2000 election fiasco.

In May, 2007, when the Florida state legislature scheduled its 2008 presidential primary election, a lot of folks thought it a good idea that Florida be first, among big states, to hold its primary. With a large diverse population that some feel is a microcosm of the US, it seemed natural that this election would focus national attention on the state.

Enter the DNC. Concerned about a leapfrogging phenomenon as states jostled for position, the committee decreed that it would punish states holding primaries prior to Super Tuesday by refusing to seat that state’s delegates at the national convention.

Perhaps thinking that a leading candidate would have emerged long before the convention, Florida went ahead and held its election on January 29th. Florida is a closed primary state that limits primary voting to registered party members. It should also be noted that while the state legislature is dominated by Republicans, the decision to go forward with the January date was reportedly reached on a bi-partisan basis. And although the candidates generally respected the DNC’s wishes and refrained from campaigning in Florida, a record 1.7 million Democrats went to the polls giving Clinton 50% of the votes and Obama 33%.

Now, with Clinton and Obama running neck and neck, accounting for every delegate is vital. And since it seems highly unlikely that either candidate can clinch the nomination via the remaining state primaries, the status of the Florida delegates has emerged as crucial.

The DNC, as fronted by Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, a.k.a. Mr. Congeniality, is sticking to its position with anal intensity and demanding that Florida hold a new election. Bear in mind, however, that after July 1st, the convention’s credentialing authority shifts to the Rules Committee and ultimately goes to the convention floor. So the decision to seat the Florida delegates on the basis of the January primary results isn’t a dead issue by a long shot.

The idea for a re-vote is not being well-received by Floridians. A major concern is the cost. A full-blown election is estimated to cost as much as $25 million. State officials say that having the state pay for this is a non-starter. Governor Charlie Crist is calling on the DNC to respect the effort of the 1.7 million voters who went to the polls in January and seat the Florida delegates. So, both sides, hardened by a righteousness of a well-reasoned position seem to be settling into a stalemate.

The one glimmer of hope is a proposal for a mail-in re-vote that seems to be gaining some support here in Florida. The cost, estimated at $5 million, would be substantially less than a regular election. But even this amount is unsettling to some. Speaker of the Florida House, Marco Rubio, was quoted in the Tampa Times on Saturday:

"The last thing our already overburdened supervisors of elections need is to be forced to administer another election, even if Democrats pay for it," he said. "No state resources nor a single taxpayer penny should be spent on resolving an intraparty fight."

And while the DNC is not prepared to pay for re-vote, there are suggestions that the state party, or the candidate’s campaigns or perhaps private contributions might be used to defray the cost. While these all sound reasonable, each is fraught with complications and none is jumping out as the magic bullet. In the meantime, pundits are busy trying to figure out which candidate is helped, or hurt by the possible outcomes as both campaigns try for a reasonable-sounding position. Also to be considered is the reactions of the various constituencies some of which are likely to be unhappy no matter how the issue is settled. One thing is for certain, the longer this issue goes unresolved, the more likely it is that the question will end up on the convention floor, where, it also seems more and more likely, the selection of the candidate will be made. The seating of the Florida delegation will have gone from being a minor non-issue to one of the elements of a perfect storm of dissention.