An Old Joke

"All I ask for is a one-armed Economist," starts the old saw. "Then, at least he won't be able to say, 'on the other hand'" (rim shot, cymbal smash). Like so many tired jokes, however, it contains a kernel of veracity. The "dismal science" just doesn't have the specificity of the hard sciences, especially when it comes to forecasting. As a matter of fact, it's not too reliable when it comes to analyzing past economic performance. To wit: equally strong cases can be made, for an against, the effect of FDR's programs on the Great Depression. So when the new President cites the support of hundreds of economists for his stimulus package, it needs to be understood that there are just as many learned economists who can make the opposite case. In other words, it might work, but on the other hand......

Our country has prospered for centuries under a private sector system that rewards industry and hard work. Among the many benefits of this system is the where withal to care for those in society unable to provide for themselves. While it is difficult to accurately determine the optimum share of private wealth that should be taken in taxes to provide for society's unfortunates, but there clearly is a point where an increasing tax burden hinders private ambition. Why work for more income if the government is going to take most of it in taxes? Inversely, lowering the tax rate encourages production.

The new Administration, to make an understatement, has been busy. It has been cranking out major programs, any one of which could take years to plan and implement. Maybe the new Administration is just that much smarter and more efficient to crank these "solutions" out like loaves of bread. Or, maybe they are just winging it.

In addition to a massive bank bailout, it has passed a huge stimulus package that may or may not stimulate the economy, but sure will provide pork for the legislators. There is also a plan afoot to solve the housing crisis which may or may not be linked to the banking crisis and unsound lending policies. Then there is the auto industry which has been deemed too big to fail, especially if the UAW is to continue to collect over-the-top-salaries and benefits. Oh, and by he way, next week they are going to reorganize the American health Care System. Amid the euphoria of chanting "Yes, we can" can be heard a thin but clear wail of realism that asks, how are we going to pay for all this? The Administration is already admitting to $1.5 trillion, but I wouldn't take the under on this puppy.

So, here it comes. Once all these new spending plans are in place, there will be an epiphany in Washington that we will have accumulated massive deficits, which, of course, must be paid. Since the only way the government can acquire money is through taxes, major tax increases are guaranteed, so that the government can rake in more dough. Unfortunately, those higher taxes will be pushing the economy the other way, thus reducing tax revenues. This being the inverse side of supply-side economics, may not be popular, in some quarters, but the record can be ignored at our peril.

The stock market is down 2% today, on a course that will negate yesterday's dead cat bounce. In addition to providing an eerie forward economic indicator, the market is also marking down the private retirement accounts of those who have worked hard to provide for their future. I'm only guessing, but I suspect that this might be a bad time to approach these folks about chipping in big time to Obama's schemes to redistribute the wealth.

What a Difference a Week Makes.

Newt came to Naples the other night to speak at the 2009 Town Hall Distinguished Speakers Series, just a week after the President appeared in Ft, Myers to herald the salvation of mankind, aka the Stimulus Plan. As might be expected, the press coverage for the two events was markedly different, but the local Bugle (The Naples Daily News) did feature a front page article, where it labelled Newt as a "strong opponent of the government's stimulus package, as if this this constitutes an outlandish position. And this from a newspaper that most people around here see as a bit right of center.

Newt spoke for an hour, but the only comment on the Stimulus Plan that was covered was:

When it came to politics, Gingrich said he was “disappointed so far” with President Barack Obama. That disappointment, he said, stemmed from the most recent stimulus package, and the push to get it through both the House and the Senate without many people being able to read it.

Read the article HERE.

Recall the urgency, the bill had to be passed by Friday night or civilization ,as we know it, was in jeopardy. The bill was indeed passed, at which point the Obama's took off for a three day, week end media love fest in Chicago. The bill was finally signed in Denver yesterday at still another staged appearance that makes it seem that this presidency will be run in bite-size personal appearances, produced like diet cola commercial.

Where is the outrage? The biggest lump of liberal federal spending since LBJ, and no time for any analysis, let alone debate? Maybe the Democrats really do believe that the government is one big piggy bank. Have we lost our collective minds? The stock market sure thinks so.

But I am being too kind. For a more determined comment, I invite you to view Iron Mike's COMMENTS, appearing today in the blog sponsored by the Fall River Republicans. Say what you want, but the man tells it like it is.

Presidential in Ft. Myers

In describing Obama's style during the campaign, one wag stated that while he said very little, he did so with great eloquence. He seemed to have something for everyone, but precious little when it came to specifics. Many of us wondered, especially after he was elected, how he would adjust to the responsibilities of the presidency. Turns out, he adjusted very well in that he just kept on spewing the same platitudes that got him there in the first place.

Ft. Myers is right up I-75 from Naples and, until recently, was perhaps best known as the spring training home of the Red Sox. It's also the airport you fly into to get to Naples. But today, Obama came to town to promote the Great Stimulus Plan which, while he was in town, gasped its way through the U.S. Senate. Why Ft. Myers? Turns out, this small city in Southwest Florida, according to the New York Times, is "ground zero" of the country's economic recession. Eat you heart out, Detroit.

The locals began lining up for tickets on Sunday for the event taking place at the Harborside Event Center, which holds some 3,200 people. When asked why the event wasn't held at the nearby, and much larger, Germain Arena, local Democratic officials thought that the larger venue would detract from the intimacy of the "town-hall" format.

Right off the bat (Go Sox) one third of the tickets were snapped up by the White House staff and traveling press. According to Harborside management, the distribution of tickets was handled entirely by the White House. When tickets were distributed to the general public, most of whom had been waiting in line all night, it seems only an estimated 400 tickets were given out. A spokeswoman for the White House stated that her office does not comment on the number of available tickets. So there. A lot of folks who stood in line all night, were still standing outside when the event took place.

So what exactly was going on here? Rather than an open forum to discuss the local economy, we had a staged presentation for the president to pitch his Stimulus Plan. This is troubling, especially given the fact that the members of the press allowed to put questions to the President at Monday night's nationally-televised press conference had been pre-selected. Here we are dealing with the mother of all spending bills, and no one seems to be asking him the tough questions.

The bill is massive, both in its size, scope and, of course, its cost. Moreover, it has been written almost entirely by Democrats, and is likely to be passed into law with virtually no Republican support. The bill is loaded with liberal spending programs, which are stimulative only to the extent that one could argue, as Obama has, that any money spent by the government is by definition stimulative. You want tax cuts? we'll give you tax cuts, but only if you don't pay any taxes in the first place. Gotta redistribute that wealth.

We need to do something, says Obama, because we are in the deepest doo doo since the Great Depression. Jobs are disappearing at an accelerating rate, right Nancy? So don't even think of doing nothing, says the Pres. And we may not have it 100% right, but some of it is bound to work. Just how this porker is going to provide 4 million jobs? Details to follow.

Yesterday, Obama comforted a weeping homeless woman in Ft. Myers, The Senate passed its version of the stimulus bill and Secretary of the Treasury spent the day hinting at the plan for stabilizing the financial markets. The stock market reacted by losing 5% of its value in a single day. Someone needs to tell these guys that the campaign is over

Go Mitch!

Turns out, the new Pres was showing some of that slick hoops footwork, when he told us in his inauguration speech that the choice de jure was "hope over fear". He now tells us, only a few weeks later, that we have a lot to fear if we don't pass the massive, so-called, stimulus package, efsoon. Moreover, the libs are flogging the airways with ads designed to rush this mammoth porker to his desk for a quick signature.

The only thing standing between this bill and any sense of fiscal reality is the small band of Republican Senators, led by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R, Kentucky). Here is an email that we sent to McConnell's office this morning:

Senator McConnell:

The media is reporting that the President and his allies are "turning up the political heat" in an effort to break Republican resistance to the passage of the so-called stimulus plan. I know that I speak for many Republicans, conservatives and ecominc realists when I urge you and your colleagues to stand firm against this pork-laden fiasco. Please continue your efforts at reducing (especially, non-stimulative) spending, and increasing tax cuts designed to stimulate economic growth.

Click HERE to send your own email message to Senator McConnell. The pressure is building to force this pig into law, so do it today.

Both sides of the coin

we are pleased to report our arrival at the Southern Command HQ/Spring Training venue here in sunny FLA. Not to gloat, but we did notice that the temp was 18 degrees this morning back at the Rock.

The trip down went well, but a week on the road can be draining. In addition, it was hard to stay current on current events while cruising along on I-95. Before leaving, we had posted our letter to the Globe on the Bush bashing at the inauguration, as well as mea culpa post when the Morrisey Boulevard crowd surprised us all by printing it. Since then, the letter has sparked a fullsome response from the anti-Bush crowd.

Over the week end, Peter Berkowitz of the Hoover Institution published an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal in which he examined the linked phenomena of Bush hating and Obama Euphoria. The ARTICLE is well worth the read, but we especially found the following excerpt telling:

At first glance, Bush hatred and Obama euphoria could not be more different. Hatred of Mr. Bush went well beyond the partisan broadsides typical of democratic politics. For years it disfigured its victims with open, indeed proud, loathing for the very manner in which Mr. Bush walked and talked. It compelled them to denounce the president and his policies as not merely foolish or wrong or contrary to the national interest, but as anathema to everything that made America great.

In contrast, the euphoria surrounding Mr. Obama's run for president conferred upon the candidate immunity from criticism despite his newness to national politics and lack of executive experience, and regardless of how empty his calls for change. At the same time, it inspired those in its grips, repeatedly bringing them tears of joy throughout the long election season. With Mr. Obama's victory in November and his inauguration last week, it suffused them with a sense that not only had the promise of America at last been redeemed but that the world could now be transfigured.

In fact, Bush hatred and Obama euphoria -- which tend to reveal more about those who feel them than the men at which they are directed -- are opposite sides of the same coin. Both represent the triumph of passion over reason. Both are intolerant of dissent. Those wallowing in Bush hatred and those reveling in Obama euphoria frequently regard those who do not share their passion as contemptible and beyond the reach of civilized discussion. Bush hatred and Obama euphoria typically coexist in the same soul. And it is disproportionately members of the intellectual and political class in whose souls they flourish.

We suspect that this will all die down as George Bush settles in to his private life in Texas, and the new president continues to deal with the demanding realities of his new office. It would appear that the "hope and change express" seems to have already hit some rough going as he tries to fill his cabinet posts with tax payers and tries to guide the pork-laden stimulus package through an increasingly skeptical congress. Stay tuned.